Veby Mega Indah

Rasio utang Indonesia akhir tahun ini mungkin lebih besar dari tahun sebelumnya, sekalipun pemerintah sudah pasang ancang-ancang target menurunkan rasio utang dari 33 persen di 2008 menjadi 30 persen di 2009.

Direktur Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang Departemen Keuangan Rahmat Waluyanto, Kamis (5/11) menyatakan rasio utang Indonesia mencapai 32 persen atau mendekati target rasio utang akhir tahun. Tapi jangan lupa, sisa jatah penerbitan Surat Utang Negara (SUN) tahun ini masih sekitar 10 persen dan penyerapan utang luar negeri di Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBN-P) 2009 baru sekitar 45 persen. Jadi sangat mungkin rasio utang akhir tahun nanti melebihi 33 persen.

Meski demikian, Rahmat bersikukuh rasio utang Indonesia tetap akan menurun terimbas menguatnya kurs rupiah terhadap dolar dan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal IV yang diprediksi sebesar 4.5 persen.


“Rasionya utang terus menurun. Semuanya (mengimbas kepada rasio utang) termasuk laju pertumbuhan (ekonomi) juga. Penerbitan surat utang juga kita selalu sesuaikan kebutuhan APBN dan melihat situasi pasar,” kata Rahmat saat dihubungi Kontan di Jakarta.


Meski target rasio utang pemerintah tampak mengkhawatirkan, Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) justru tak terlalu ambil peduli. Ini karena, menurut Ketua Komisi XI Harry Azhar Azari, untuk urusan utang-mengutang pemerintah tak akan bisa melewati batas pagu APBN-P 2009 yang ditetapkan DPR.


“Urusan besaran target utang itu sebenarnya bukan masalah, karena bagaimanapun pemerintah tetap tak bisa mengambil utang melebihi pagu yang ditetapkan DPR. Yang justru kami khawatirkan itu penyerapan utangnya,” kata Harry, dihubungi Kontan di Jakarta, Kamis (5/11).


Menurut Harry, rendahnya penyerapan utang luar negeri lebih mengkhawatirkan karena tidak semua proyek-proyek yang didanai utang luar negeri bersifat multi years. Ini berarti, jika sampai akhir 2009 utang luar negeri tak juga terserap 100 persen bisa jadi dana utang hangus tak bisa dilanjutkan ke APBN 2010.


“Tak jadi masalah kalau proyeknya bersifat multiyears, jadi bisa masuk anggaran tahun depan. Kalau tidak, komitmen utangnya jalan tapi proyeknya tidak akan muncul. Tapi kita lihat saja nanti sampai akhir Desember, berapa nanti penyerapannya,” kata Harry.


Sebenarnya, DPR juga khawatir lambannya penyerapan utang ini terjadi di anggaran belanja Kementrian/Lembaga. Namun Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani pernah menjanjikan belanja K/L akan mencapai 90-95 persen di kuartal IV. Sisa tak terserap 5-10 persen pun menurut dia lebih karena efesiensi belanja.Kita tunggu saja.

***
Dimuat di Kontan Online, 5 November 2009

Posted by Veby Mega Indah at 6:01 PM | 1 comments    

East Asia countries are reluctant to add more problem in to their economy regional community by not to invite US and EU.




Japan may has many dreams for East Asia community, but their dreams may just end up as a fantasy piece. Like a raw salmon sushi, this regional economy community which laid between Asean countries, Japan, South Korea, China, India, Australia and New Zealand is far from ripeness.

Labeled as East Asia Summit (EAS), this regional concept became one of the top topics during Asean 15th summit in Hua Hin, Thailand last week. Japan came with their idea to open EAS door for US to join, which may follow by other countries such as European Union (EU). As Hatoyama, quoted by Japan Today said Tokyo-Washington relationship is a corner stone of Japanese diplomacy, therefore inviting Uncle Sam to EAS seems to be a rational thing to do.

But Japanese idea received cold responses. Not only from Asean countries, but also from other partner country who has close relationship with US such as South Korea.

“EAS has just been launched, so we may need more maturity among our self. And of course, there are lots of things need to be discussed in this region,” South Korea Trade Minister Jong Hoon Kim said.

He said, like China and India, South Korea will focus more on giving loans and aids for Asean countries development, for the sake of maturing East Asia regional concept rather than hastily inviting US and EU to come.

Jong's perspective which goes along with other EAS countries is based on strong facts. EAS countries do have lots issues to settle. Starting from Asean, member countries are struggling to achieved their 2015 economy integration. Indonesia and Philipine are trying to postpone zero tariff on sensitive commodities such as rice and sugar from Thailand, while Cambodian opposition suggested their government to hold zero tariff on all commodities as impact of their decreasing exports to Thailand and Vietnam after global crisis.

Same story happened between Indonesia, Malaysia and India, as impact of India reluctance to lower their tariff for crude palm oil before 2018. Indian Prime Minister Mahmohan Singh in his press conference in Hua Hin stated that although India has signed free trade agreement with Asean, the government will keep “special tariff” for 418 sensitive commodities.

The complexities has made performing Asean economy integration not as easy as turning out the palm of your hand. Until September 2009, member countries readiness to full fill Asean 2015 economy integration still at 73.79 percent averagely, with Indonesia alone achieved 80.95 percent. This means bad news, since lowering tariff to Asean integration zero tariff will start next year.

“Head of state meeting (in Hua Hin) did mention that economic ministers has to full fill implementation of this blue print soon,” Trade Minister Marie Pangestu said.

From Indonesia, Marie said the biggest obstacles come from bad infrastructures and special tariff Indonesia has for health sectors. Marie did not refute the facts that smaller countries with more modest government systems like Brunei, Cambodia or Singapore are easier to full fill the target instead Indonesia, Thailand or Philippine.

And for Myanmar as greenhorn, almost most of its implementation readiness are stacked in a dead end, starting from infrastructures, goods and services, and custom system of Asean Single Window. Than Swee's political and economically closed government has banned communication flow such as internet that Asean Single Window desperately need to work. And Asean is banned to do anything beside persuasive diplomacy, because of its “non interfering” principles.

Outside Asean circle, problem also occurs between China and India. During Hua Hin summit, Prime Minister Singh forced a 45 minutes bilateral informal meeting with Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jia Bao. The meeting's purpose was clear: to show to the press that China-India relationship's tense caused by Dalai Lama and border disputes, will not let them crushing their US $ 60 billions a year bilateral trade.

“India will always welcome Dalai lama, because he is our guess and that is not an issue. During our talk, China was not mention it at all and we agreed to discuss all problems such as border dispute, when Chinese foreign minister come to India to talk to our foreign minister at the end of October,” said Singh.

All the problems inevitably made Indonesia and other EAS countries except Japan and Australia reluctant to add more complexities by inviting US and EU in. Moreover, those two western powers do famous with their habits in using economy to achieve their political purposes.

“Therefore, we, Indonesia and other Asean countries basically welcome to accept any countries in to EAS. But of course, as long as they agree to play our game rules,” said Marie.

****
Print edition was published at Jurnal Nasional,Tuesday, 27th October 2009

Posted by Veby Mega Indah at 6:36 PM | 0 comments    

Negara-negara Asia Timur enggan menambah masalah dengan membuka pintu bagi Amerika dan Uni Eropa




Sekalipun Jepang punya mimpi-mimpi indah mengembangkan komunitas Asia Timur; tapi mimpi hanyalah sepenggal khayalan. Bagai sushi salmon yang tersaji mentah, konsep komunitas regional ekonomi yang terbentang antara negara-negara Asean dengan Jepang, China, Korea Selatan (Korsel), India, Australia serta Selandia Baru ini masih jauh dari matang.


Berpayung label East Asia Summit (EAS), konsep regional ini kembali mengemuka di pertemuan Asean ke-15 di Hua Hin, Thailand minggu lalu. Jepang hadir dengan ide membuka pintu EAS bagi Amerika, untuk kemudian diikuti “negara-negara lainnya”, yaitu Uni Eropa (UE). Hatoyama pada Japan Today mengatakan hubungan Tokyo-Washington adalah batu penjuru diplomasi Jepang, yang berarti Paman Sam sebaiknya diajak dalam EAS selanjutnya.


Tapi ide Jepang mendapat tanggapan dingin. Bukan hanya dari negara-negara Asean, tapi juga dari negara patner lainnya yang juga memiliki hubungan dekat dengan Amerika seperti Korea Selatan.


“EAS baru saja diluncurkan, jadi mungkin kita perlu ‘kematangan” yang lebih diantara kita sendiri. Dan tentu saja banyak hal yang masih harus didiskusikan di kawasan ini,” kata Menteri Perdagangan Korsel Jong Hoon Kim, ditemui usai penutupan pertemuan Hua Hin.


Menurutnya, seperti halnya China dan India, Korsel akan lebih fokus memberikan komitmen bantuan dana dan pinjaman bagi Asean demi “pematangan” konsep regional Asia Timur. Ketimbang buru-buru mengundang Amerika dan UE bergabung.


Sikap Jong yang selaras dengan pernyataan negara-negara anggota EAS lainnya ini punya alasan kuat. Masih banyak masalah yang mengganjal diantara anggota EAS. Dimulai dari internal Asean, negara-negara anggota masih bergelut mencapai integrasi ekonomi 2015. Indonesia dan Filipina berusaha menunda pembebasan tarif komoditas sensitif seperti beras dan gula Thailand, sementara oposisi Kamboja justru meminta pemerintahnya menunda menurunkan semua tarif mulai tahun depan, karena ekspor mereka ke Thailand dan Vietnam merosot tajam pasca krisis global.


Kisah serupa juga terjadi antara Indonesia, Malaysia dengan India, terimbas keengganan negeri Bombay menurunkan tarif masuk minyak kelapa sawit mentahnya sebelum 2018. Perdana Menteri India Mahmohan Singh dalam pertemuan pers di Hua Hin menyatakan, sekalipun India telah menandatangani perjanjian perdagangan bebas dengan Asean, pemerintah mereka akan tetap memberlakukan tarif istimewa untuk 418 jenis komoditas “sensitif”.


Kerumitan kepentingan ekonomi ini membuat persiapan integrasi ekonomi Asean pun tak semudah membalikkan telapak tangan. Hingga September 2009, kesiapan implementasi negara-negara anggota memenuhi cetak biru integrasi Asean 2015 rata-rata baru 73.79 persen, dan untuk Indonesia sekitar 80.95 persen. Ini kabar buruk, karena penurunan tarif menuju tarif bebas ASEAN akan dimulai Januari tahun depan.


“Dalam pembahasan tingkat kepala negara (di Hua Hin) telah disebutkan bahwa menteri-menteri ekonomi harus bisa memenuhi implementasi cetak biru ini,” kata Menteri Perdagangan Marie Pangestu.


Dari Indonesia, halangan implementasi cetak biru integrasi Asean menurut Marie disebabkan buruknya infrastruktur dan tarif khusus bidang kesehatan. Marie tak menyanggah, negara-negara kecil dengan struktur pemerintahan sederhana seperti Brunei, Kamboja atau Singapura bisa lebih mudah memenuhi target implementasi ini daripada Indonesia, Thailand atau Malaysia.


Sementara Myanmar masih jadi anak bawang, yang target implementasinya tersendat mulai dari infrastruktur, barang dan jasa hingga sistem bea cukai Jendela Tunggal Asean. Pemerintahan otoriter Than Swe yang tertutup secara politik dan ekonomi menjadi kendala tunggal, sehingga jaringan internet pendukung Sistem Jendela Tunggal Asean pun ikut terblokade pemerintah. Dan Asean tak bisa berbuat banyak kecuali diplomasi persuasif, terhalang prinsip “tak mencampuri urusan dalam negeri anggota”.


Di luar Asean, perseteruan juga terlihat antara India dan China. Selama pertemuan Hua Hin, Perdana Menteri Mahmohan Singh secara khusus menyempatkan diri bertemu Perdana Menteri China Wen Jia Bao selama 45 menit. Inti pertemuan itu hanya satu: untuk menunjukkan pada pers, hubungan China dan India yang tegang akibat isu Dalai Lama dan perbatasan, tak akan menghalangi arus perdagangan bilateral senilai US $ 60 miliar pertahun.


“India akan tetap menerima hangat Dalai Lama, karena dia tamu negara dan itu bukan masalah. Dalam perbincangan kami, pihak China juga sama sekali tidak menyinggung soal ini. Kami sepakat, semua masalah lain juga masalah perbatasan, akan dibahas dalam kunjungan menteri luar negeri China ke India akhir Oktober ini,” kata Singh.


Semua halangan ini tak pelak membuat Indonesia dan negara-negara EAS selain Jepang dan Australia tak berminat menambah kerumitan dengan mengundang Amerika dan UE. Apalagi, dua kubu barat tersebut terkenal “gemar” menggunakan ekonomi sebagai alat mencapai kepentingan politiknya.


“Karena itu, kita, Indonesia dan negara-negara Asean lainnya pada dasarnya terbuka menerima negara manapun untuk bergabung dalam EAS. Tapi tentu saja, hanya jika mereka bersedia menerima 'aturan main' kita,”kata Marie.


****

Edisi cetak dimuat di Jurnal Nasional,Tuesday, 27 Oktober 2009

Posted by Veby Mega Indah at 4:40 PM | 0 comments    

Asean economy integration to be in 2015, may open lot of opportunities windows for each member’s countries. But at the same time, it also opens a new window of leakage, where member countries able to use it to get away from regional trade rules.

Cheering up for the integration, Thailand is preparing to burn their food more on bio fuel and part of it will be done in Indonesian market. During 15th Asean Summit in Hua Hin, Thailand, the Siamese country proposed green cars project to be part of so called “strategic plan to tackle climate change” at ASEAN Economy Meeting (AEM) and Asean Automotive Community (AAC).

“It’s to response for the problem of global warming. We don't see any guideline regarding to global warming that's why we want them to consider future guideline to support the green technologies to produce clean and green car”, said Alongkorn Ponlaboot, Deputy Minister of Commerce Thailand, (22 /10) in Hua Hin.

The target was no surprise. Thailand happens to be the strongest ethanol potential nation in South East Asia, with its cassava production average per year 18.8 million tons and sugar cane 58.8 millions tons. On the other part, their domestic use is low, only 4.4 millions tons for cassava and 8.2 millions tons for sugar cane.

Exporting this over production foods definitely not a simple story, even with Asean zero tariffs agreement starting 2010. On the Asean Economy Integration declaration, member nations are allowed to left space for protectionism and ask to postpone lowering their tariffs for certain goods. It can be done bilaterally outside Asean, like what Indonesia and Philippines practiced on Thai rice. Last year, Indonesia Thailand agreed to postpone it until 2015 with compensation if Indonesia need to buy rice, they will buy it from the Siamese.

“We asked that both for sugar and rice, with G to G agreement if we need to import, we will buy it from them. We have done it since long time a go, so it will not change anything significant,” Trade Minister Marie Pangestu said in Hua Hin, (24/10).

Though, for Thailand, postponing zero tariffs means give space for other Asean countries to increase their own production and losing needs for Thais foods. Since Thaksin Shinawatra era, Thailand has been actively improving their agriculture production, not only basic but also manufactured ones. Just like what happened with bio fuel and green cars.

Since 2005, Thailand has an ambitious ethanol target. They increase domestic gasohol service stations up to 4000 and raising daily consumption to 4 millions liters. At the end, they tried to push more ethanol in to domestic market by producing Flexible Fuel Vehicle (FFV) with 85 percent mix ethanol-gasoline.

“Schedule is increasing because Thailand is the fourth largest of ethanol producer (in the world) and that's why we are increasing the number of bio fuel and also to incentive the production of FFV,” Alongkorn said.

Starting next year, Thailand government gives incentives to 23 car producer from Japan, Europe and US to produce at least 100,000 green cars per year. Alongkorn said the market strategy will be focusing Asean, with Thailand and Indonesia market to begin with. Thailand will penetrate Indonesian large market, by grabbing big Japanese car producers of Toyota whom happens to have their factories at both countries. If the Thais can not sell their foods raw, they will burn them.

“That is what I called as a leakage in the system. All the beautiful nation policies bounded in the region have hole where they always can do something to the systems,” Zelda DT Soriano, political advisor of Green Peace South East Asia said.

The green organization at 15ths Asean Summit in Hua Hin has been urging member nations to make a leadership on climate change, but at the same time questioning bio fuel role as renewable energy, for its carbon print and endanger to regional food security.


***

Print edition will be published in Jurnal Nasional, 26th October 2009

Posted by Veby Mega Indah at 4:02 PM | 0 comments    

Something indeed unique came out from this Hua Hin’s Asean 15th summit. It has drama, like other normal multilateral summit used to be. One part, Asean leaders and big names were formally joining hands and smiling to media’s camera, celebrated inauguration of their historical human rights commission. But on the other hand, Asean civil societies were yelling on the yard, demanding more civil roles in it. Is this really an Asean Summit?

Late Indonesia Foreign Minister Ali Alatas once said Asean was formed in unique way. Every thing was done at leaders level, without any rules or declaration specially needed. In fact, Asean summit on the old days was no more then a public relation act for the public, while the real deals decided secretly among leaders. They called it “rainbow diplomacy” and left uninformed public called Asean as “paper tiger”.

But it was history, and gongos drama in Hua Hin declaring that. Just hours before Asean inaugurated their human rights commission, three civil society representatives of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia walked out from informal meeting with delegates. Yuyun Wahyuningrum of Indonesian civil society representative said the drama was made to tell the world: independent Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) will not stay in the same forum with gongos, puppet pro government NGOs.

“We told the gongos: if you walk in, we walk out,” she said.

The gongos drama rooted back to one of the only two articles of protection in Asean Human Rights draft. It is required Asean governments to discuss and consult with civil societies, which means as their watch dogs to be. But what happened in reality was not that simple. Basically the draft still echoing Asean old ways spirit of no interfering, and let the NGOs chosen fully by each government. Some may get lucky, when their government give enough freedom and space. While most have to struggle in boundary of so called government’s accreditation.

Same story conducted in Hua Hin. Civil societies united in Asean People’s Forum proposed their 9 representatives for informal meeting with delegates, and end up only 4 of them included. In previous 14th summit, Khin Ohmar of Myanmar was rejected because she was “political activist” and replaced by a former Myanmar anti narcotic police. While Nay Vanda of Cambodia were rejected for similar story.

“We have been flexible that time, but not this time,” said Yuyun.

And the drama began. Late at night before the meeting, Thailand government informed them that Singapore, Philippine and Lao governments surprisingly were echoing Myanmar and Cambodia, to reject NGOs proposed persons. And the dialogue forum also changed. Each representatives were not allowed to speak their minds anymore, instead only for their chief, Surichai Wangaeo. Feeling nothing left to do in the forum, 3 of the representatives walked out to show their solidarity for the reject ones. Meanwhile, Vietnamesse representative Tran Thi Thu Tuy choose to obey her government wish, and stay in the room.For the record, Tran is both gongos and selected representative of Asean People Forum, since there is no independent NGOs in Vietnam

Even so, Indonesia Asean Cooperation Director Ade Padmo was regretting the walked out act. Being vocal on human rights since 26th Asean Ministerial Meeting at Singapore, Indonesia felt Yuyun and her friends made mistake by wasting a rare opportunity.

“The problem is, talks with civil societies are very rare in Asean. So they should not waste it,” said Ade. Indonesian regrets was not funny, based on fact that the idea of putting civil societies’ role in Asean human rights draft was initiated by them.

“But we still honoring what their decision is and will not interfere at all,” said Ade.

***
Print edition published in Jurnal Nasional, 24th Oct 2009

Posted by Veby Mega Indah at 2:15 PM | 0 comments